RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New 52 week highMalx1,
Thanks for the CIBC report. Nothing new, same concern over production reliability, let alone growth, we have all had for some time. Management at both Syncrude and all the joint venture partners I am sure are keenly focused on this overhang. That said the Syncrude oil price has been nothing short of outstanding. The CIBC analyst is obviously using a much more conservative price deck than most. The reason I say that is COS is using a little less than C$88/ BO. If the C$ continues to trade at a meaningful discount to the USD, and the WTI / Syncrude differntial goes away then he would have to assuming WTI less than $79 range requiring "borrowing"to pay the current dividend of $.35/ qtr.
If your looking for coverage for the current dividend from after capex cash flow, then I offer the following. The current 2014 cash flow guidance is $2.39/ share. Holding all COS' s arguably conservative assumptions constant and simply using $.85/ share for maint capex beginning second half 2015, would result in $1.54/ share in free cash flow. Covered. Layer on improving production and much stronger oil prices along with a strong USD$ then the upside potential becomes apparent.