RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Biotech777Hi Narmac.
Yes...and 4 more biotech conferences coming up. In terms of advertise my key point was to say that RVX must
manage it's image to all constituents. I came to the stock because of what I read in the press and the willingness within this area of my portfolio, to take the risk. Within, let me guess, say 30% to 35% of the non insider shareholders, for example retail investors, continuuing showcasing of the positive results in the post hoc analysis could drive some level of trading volume and price. A positive result on the diabetes trial and Alzhemiers must be leveraged with the broad market. Any movement up in the share price increases negotiating leverage.
Of course BP and big players on the capital side will be there and studying results in great detail. That is a given.
In terms of the deal side, my take on what Sanfran has being saying is that he is fairly sure a deal has been in the works for a long time. Sanfran, please correct me if I'm wrong.
I would expect the deal making to be behind closed doors entirely and kept under close wraps. From the potential partner's point of view (and their could be more than one) information getting to the market would compromise their negotiating leverage.
From the RVX perspective, based on posts I've seen from people who have been around for a long time on this stock, they had
better not let the cat out of the bag this time or their may be serious consequences from the suitor(s).
I get the feeling that RVX had earned a bad reputation and lost trust and credibility in the indusrty. I hope I'm wrong, but if correct, this must be addressed.
So Then The Deal Issues So then, let us assume that big pharma is completely aware of rvx-208, the history of the company and it's management and all of the drug trial's performance(s) over the past 14 years.
Let's also assume that they were fully aware of the release of the results of the Clinic's findings last June of .4% plaque reduction achieved by rvx-208 across the full sample (statistically positively significant but missed target).
- Given that these BP companies have hundreds of results and opportunities to study in the acedemic commumity and private and public companies RVX may have fallen off their radar.
- Certainly big doubts were raised by the failure to achieve the target.
- Then comes the post hoc analysis in an atmosphere of skepticism.
What might be happening? - BP saw the June 2013 results and lost interest...having greater interest in more promising results from other competitors.
- BP views the post hoc analysis of combined trials as "selecting a subset of signifcant results that meet RVX's goals" and views these results with great suspicion. As a statistician I know how to do this. However, it's the science that must be brought to bear in order in order to establish credibility of the post hoc results...do the post hoc results have face validity (make some sense) based on the underlying science. If so, their interest may continue.
- BP views the post hoc results with strong interest. If we assume that they have been up and down the post hoc findings and find some serious interest in all of the many positive findings then there is the basis of negotiations. They''ll be at the table.
Of course, I have no idea what is happening but there are a few things that make me believe the view is positive:
- The large set of positive findings from the post hoc analysis, pacticularly the MACE results.
- The continued interest from Eastern Capital.
- The continued support of NGN.
- Even, the restructuring of the company before the last trial results were released (clearly a bet that rvx-208 would hit the target).
- The knowledge and depth of the RVX team and those they surround themselves with/by.
Toinv