RE:higher dividends are coming Here is my quick back of the envelope calculation of q1 2014 estimated cash flow. Starting with the guidance of c$2.39. Per share for the year 2014. To estimate how much of tht is q1 I simply divide estimated production for q1 divided by yearly production ( ie 27/105=25.7%). This approach seems very reasonable as the assumptions for oil prices, aeco nat gas prices, foreign exchange rate are the same for all 4 quarters. Therefore that results in a q1 guidance of (C$2.39*.257=C$.61). The three factors that I focus on are the foreign exchange rate, the oil price , and nat gas price. Fortunately ican get all this from the First energy site. The math collapsed for oil prices and foreign exchange rate sensitivities reflect tht quarter to date COS has enjoyed approximately $20/ barrel more than guidance. Multiplying that $20 by .05 you get $1/ share however that need to be divided by 4 to reflect one quarter or $.25. Nat gas has averaged C$ 5.59 versus the estimate of C$3.50 or about $2 higher than guidance. Using the sensitivities provided of $.03 for every C$.50 of higher nat gas price I get (4 *.03 =.12) divided by 4 quarters=$0.03. This results in cash flow befor capex of .61+.25 -.03 = $.83/share. If capex is $.60 then tht results in free cash flow of about $ .25/ share versus the guidance of approximately $.61-.60=.01/ .
Just my quick estimate.we will see.