GREY:STPJF - Post by User
Post by
Backwardbladeon Mar 28, 2014 2:19am
409 Views
Post# 22379857
I was OUT....
I was OUT....at .36 today, about 20 min after the open. I came close enough to my ".40 or bust" that after 6 months, and ,2 double downs to .12, it was time to collect. I was betting on the land. I think the bank was too. This way they have their interest rate, and if things fall apart....a fully functional asset for cheap.
Now it's a production story vs the debt. You are betting strictly on production vs the debt....just like any other o&g company. Their production is not that high NOW. If everything goes right it's a winner for sure. But lots can go wrong fast.....and as we have all seen, it is often more expensive to fix something than to start from scratch. And the debt IS big. It doesn't go away just because 2 holes are up a bunch. And you have to consider the interest to be paid as an automatic deduction against whatever production value you want to use....because it doesn't add anything. Thats a good chunk that doesn't matter to you and me and the bottom line.....available money against the shares, AFTER everything is paid.
Once they get a handle on paying everything in a timely mannner, and producing to do so, THEN you can start adding juicy multiples.
I think there is enough people out there with the same thoughts as me. Not to mention, IF, and that is a big IF there are people looking to buy it they will want to push it down.
I made 44% today. I just want to be able to take my canoe and rod out anytime I want too...not buy the whole lake.
For those of you in at for much longer than me, and at higher valuations I wish you the best that the engineers can pull out of the ground.
If the price drops to the mid to high 20's and the debs hold I might be in for a bunch more....but mostly the houses money.
I wish you all the best. This has been a great forum.