Q1-14 Cash Flow EstimateQ4-13 Net Revenue: $945M (SCO sales minus Crude Oil purchases)
Q1-14 Cash Flow Estimate Net Revenue: $1050M @ $108.53/bbl ($108M more than Q4)
Total Operating Expenses: $547M
Royalty $60M
CF from Operations: $436M
Change in Non-Working Capital: $20M (Est)
Cash from operating activities: $456M (94¢/shr)
Capex plus maintenance: $300M (62¢/shr)
Cash available for distribution $156M (32¢/shr)
Cash required for distribution $170M (35¢/shr)
Cash burn for Q4-01 $14M (3¢/shr)
Cash in the Bank as of Dec 31/13, $806M
Projected cash at end of Mar 31/14: $792M
I’ve biased the capex a bit on the high side since Mildred lake capex might be finished by Q3. This is the biggest unknown in estimating Cash Available for Distribution. Even if it's $50M more than I used, it will still leave a big chunk of cash in the bank and keep the analysts happy.
For March, the average SCO price was 110.75/bbl and received a premium of 95¢/bbl. Production in February was 105,035 b/d, about 100 b/d lower than February.
All in all a very good quarter!!
I’ve also take a crack at earnings for Q1-14. My estimate is 55¢, which is 5¢ above current consensus of 50¢, according to TD Waterhouse, with a range from 23¢ to 65¢. There is such a wide range because earnings are difficult since they involve depreciation and foreign exchange loss.
Namsoc
Earnings Estimate Revenue $1042M
| Expenses |
| Operating Expense (based on Sales) $395M |
| Non Production Cost (R&D and Eng) $40M |
| Crown Royalties $60M |
| Administration $6M |
| Insurance $3M |
| Depreciation $120M |
| Realized FX loss (gain) $55M |
| Financing expanses $7M |
| Corporate Tax $89M |
| Total Operating Expenses $775M |
Net Income $268M ($1042M – $775M)
Estimated Earning per share 55¢ |
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