RE:RE:RE:Upside to the downsideZAM's team or individual managing ATH is definitely smart.
I, on the other hand, having bought a large sum of JAN 14 options from who I'm assuming was ZAM am not smart.
They made a huge sum of money in the IPO, own the Grosmont asset 50/50 with ATH, and bought about 10M shares in 2013 at ~$6.3.
As a long term investor, they may have even orchestrated a short against the box to profit as the stock fell throughout 2012-13 as approvals dragged on.
I also expect they have been doing the bulk of the massive options trading in ATH in the last 6-8 months, making milions every month as the Dover project has been delayed, JV's didn't materialize, and the stock went nowhere.
With their recent sells, I'm assuming they are profiting on the 10M shares they bought last year at ~$6.3, reducing their exposure to the stock back to more reasonable levels, all while continuing to protect the huge number of calls and puts they have written at large premiums in what looks like a short straddle in APR.
I expect they will continue to reduce exposure to ATH until there is final confirmation from AER on the EPEA approval and confirmed timing of the $1.2 or $1.3B. At that point I'm thinking they won't be able to contain the price anymore and they will score again on the upswing with their remaining 50M shares. Let's hope anyway.
As of the end of March AER now has jurisdiction over EPEA approvals. The transfer of jurisdiction from AESRD to AER may have caused some delays in the last approval step. I'm assuming ATH will get final approval in the very near future now that this transfer has occurred. That good news coupled with any positive results from recent Duvernay wells completed before breakup will send this $10+.
Thanks for reading.