RE:RE:Much Ado About Something!
I think some people here are missing the mark here. What we are witnessing here is not your typical low ball offer scenario. I do not expect to see any sort of hostile bid on any one of these entities (GLW, CBJ, EOM).
There are a lot of questions right now surrounding the ambiguity of the Paramo boundry announcement as well as the news releases by CBJ, particualrly the low resource estimate followed by a map that essentially means nothing....But it does mean something, just not to most of us right now.
What these guys are doing is deliberately creating confusion for the masses knowing full well that the share prices will suffer as a result. It creates a golden buying opportunity for them behind the scenes so they do not need to come out with a low ball offer down the road. Instead they create doubt and acquire their shares in the market so when they have to pay a "fair" price at takeover time the "real" cost of their acquisiton is much lower than it appears and their pockets are full. We saw this with Galway before. There was no low ball offer. Instead there was a code of silence and a constant suppression of the share price until their ducks were in a row and then the players let the cap off leading up to the takeover. The same is happening here and its all part of their "big picture" strategy.
This is all speculation on my part obviously but I've seen this enough times now to know that when there is this much media action that makes no sense at all, there are usually games afoot and you must read between the lines.
Why announce the Paramo boundries without the coordinates? No good reason other than to cause confusion and investor panic. This is their manipulative hostile takeover. They're getting their shares cheap now so they can make a reasonable offer later and everything appears fair and above board. The surviving shareholders will still be rewarded handsomly but the big boys have already lined their pockets with a litte (or a lot) extra.
Why was CBJs resource estimate so low and right before the useless map was posted?
Its a no brainer that at minimum GLW's and CBJ's interests are aligned and Vetas will be one project eventually. In my opinion the low resource estimate serves a few purposes (again from the larger strategy perspective).
a) Hammers the share price down so shares can continue to be acquired on the cheap.
b) GLW needs to succeed in acquiring ownership of their land and right now they are in a dispute over the price of acquisition. The goal is to exercise the option and pay as little as possible. With the drill result we've seen on both side of the property boarder, its obvious there is a lot more gold here than reported. Everyone expected more from both GLW and CBJ. Even RH telegraphed at the time of the GLY takeover that they were confident and believed they were on target at Vetas to prove up more than a million ounces on their side alone and they had only done a fraction of the drilling. The news release was later retracted but the point is these guys are on the ground drilling and know exactly what's going on.
Note in CBJ's release that they specifically stated "Due to the high relief of the project area, surface drilling efforts have been focused on drilling numerous holes from individual drill platforms to increase definition efficiency. This has resulted in significant gaps in drilling coverage along interpreted gold-silver veins." The deposit continues in these "gaps" and they know this. So why release disappointing results they know will not be received well instead of holding off and proving up more? A low resource estimate on GLWs side creates a low cost acquisition of the property. They are currently in dispute over the price and then CBJ comes out with even more disappointing figures on the other side of the border which helps reinforce GLW's position in arbitration. All the while the cappers are keeping a lid on the price and the players are loading their pockets. Funny that RH has been completely silent in all of this as well. It only makes sense, as everything that is going on supports them in their quest to acquire the property at a low cost which is what everyone involved wants, so why say anything to boost investor confidence when it will likley interfere in their negotiations?
None of these guys are competitors. They are all working towards the same common goal of consolidating the area in the most profitable manner possible. It is a very dubious and complex strategy that's being exectued to perfection so far, which is no surpise when you're dealing with billions of dollars.
I suspect that once the ducks are all in a row, the coordinates will be released, the issuers will follow-up with press releases clarifying the impact to their properties which may impact their land packages but will probably have minimal impact to the primary deposits/resources that will eventually be developed. The share prices will begin their assent and the players will begin to consolidate.
Again this is all IMHO but if I'm wrong in this and the deposits are actually affected, I'm still not worried as compensation will be in order. There are enough big players invested in these issuers to feel confident we won't be fleeced when all is said and done.
Until then, sit back, don't panic and enjoy the show.....
BH