RE:Just an observation:Yes most are negative because they don't understand the stock, don't take the time to understand it and the role it can play in ones portfolio.
Most analysts are looking for mid size companies that are growing since they are looking for capital gains. If one assumes that the price of oil stays constant, then the only way for an oil company to become more valuable is to grow the business. So for analysts who barely look at COS and they hear it is not increasing production, strike 1, do not buy it.
COS has been making headlines for the last few years because of missed production targets. For the casual analyst, Strike 2, don't buy.
COS/Syncrude have been on a major maintence and refurbisment program that takes a lot of capital for the past two years. They are dipping into cash to pay the dividend and debt is going up. Strike 3, don't buy.
The good news
Unfortunately, most of these analysts don't realize that all of the above is about to change in the Q4. If you are a COS follower you know that the above is going to change.
Capex will be almost complete by Q4 and all of the capex savings will translate into an increased dividend announcement, I believe near the end of October and additional ones next year.
The refurbishments and mine train moves they made last year and this should result in more stable production numbers going forward
While COS may not be increasing in size, it will be increasing its dividends. Old coggers like me want increasing dividends. This will drive the price higher, which is the bonus for those of us who are patient .
The SP has been going up lately because I believe the high dividend ETFs and funds have been buying the stock. They have been doing their homework and they know what is going to happen to the dividend. For me and many other, COS is a source of stable income. That's the role it plays in my portfolio. Remember, it has 50 years of oil and the price of oil will be going up, slowly, that is a big bonus.
As for earnings, one month ago according to TD, consensus earnings was 50¢. Today it is 52¢. When I posted my number in early April, my estimate was 55¢. The big unknown is the foreign exchange loss which I estmate to be around $90M.
However, earnings are not the focus for COS or any oil company, it is cash flow. Cash flow determines how much you can reinvest and how much you can pay out for a dividend. For this quarter, I estimated in an earlier post that the cash flow will almost cover expenses, capex and the divy.
There is one analyst on BNN who has always said buy and put it away and forget about it and collect the divy. Recently Canaccord Genuity figured COS out and raised their target to $28. BMO is at $25 and they understand COS.
Wednesday will tell the tale
Namsoc