WINNERThere is a lot of talk of "if" someone decides to licence this technology.
Thinking about it rationally...
Moore's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Chip performance is no longer able to progress at the same pace as before.
Something new is needed in order to continue improved performance.
GaAs/POET will allow for this on an exponential scale.
It will be cheaper to manufacture, and renew puchasing demand from consumers who haven't seen a significant improvement in processing power in recent years. This will result in a massive renewal in sales for these manufactures and boost profits significantly.
They are GREEN. GaAs chips will use far less energy to run, resulting in energy savings to consumers, longer battery life, and a relief to the environment which the world could certainly use given the constant population growth and continued damage we have done which is evident by harsher weather and climate changes that have rapidly occured over the past decade.
They run several times cooler...also resulting in less need for cooling equipment, reduced chance of overheating and burning out/shorter life span. Which again supports energy savings and the GREEN feature. Governments are feeling pressure to support green inititives and could result in additional support and expedited approvals for such industry.
SMALLER size is a no brainer. The days of big bulky tv/monitors, phones, medical devices, computers etc. are behind us. The demand for paper thin processing that doesn't overheat and lock up is on a global scale.
The atmosphere is filled with dead orbitting satellites congesting the space above us. There are over 3000 in place, and over 25,000 space "objects" orbitting the planet. One collision could result in thousands of pieces spreading out and destroy others until there is nothing but a mess above. No satellites could severally limit global communications. Hopefully it never comes to that. Devices that could last much longer would certainly be preferable. POET in addition is more radiation resistent. It would have a longer space life before deterioration set in. Much more than silicon. This also is preferable to many military uses.
IF this technology becomes finalized, it won't be a matter of IF there is a signing partner or licencees. No manufacturer is going to take that chance not to be in on this. Of course this technology will be licensed or partnered or whatever POET decide on. Once all milestones are met, and the news is spread to the world, they won't have to go looking for anyone. Everyone will be climbing over each other to knock on their door. This only makes common sense.
If you're selling widgets that cost you $10, and suddenly as supplier offers you a far superior widget for $5, do you think there will be anyone sitting on the sidelines for that deal?
If all the milestones are met (which they have been so far), forget about whatever the stock price is today or tomorrow, up or down, once that happens this will become one of the biggest technology stories of the year, possibly the decade.
I'd be hard pressed to think anything otherwise will happen. Will silicon supporters lobby governments to support it over GaAs? I don't think the general population will be very pleased with any government who stood in the way of all these benefits, especially the attention environmental support gets these days.
If POET succeeds and passes all testing. What will stand in it's way?
Nothing.
This will be a WINNER.