RE:RE:RE:RE:WINNERI agreed with you (ark88) that probability of adoption historically may not apply with any accuracy.
And there is a chance it may apply here. But in comparison with other examples, this is product that is in massive demand and used in enormous amounts of products, research, other technologies. It certainly makes the probabilty a much higher one than others.
Beta was better than VHS, but marketing and licensing put VHS on top. That said, the quality of Beta wasn't astronomically better. It was just better. Same with Bluray and HD DVD, and many other technologies.
HD DVD wasn't 10x+ better than Blu-ray.
What you're saying is completely true, but I like the odds on this one. :)