RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:First offer for FCU...is there an advantage?I spoke to a very good Cameco source (not an employee) at PDAC who advised in hindsight the reason they legitimately tried to get Hathor was to keep a major competitor out of the basin. Before Rio it was pretty much Cameco and Areva. They were not successful at that but did bid up what Rio Tinto paid substantially. Cameco still has the mindset that they want to keep competitors out of the basin. Cameco will not be happy if Rio or another major buys another extremely rare high grade deposit for their inventory. There is also the beginning of a serious camp on the west side of the basin. Cameco wants to be the only main player (monopoly/oligopoly) versus a player. They have been spoiled from years of dominance.
Rio Tinto does not buy into projects as a short term venture. On a comparative basis there was speculation that BHP was going to bail out of the new Jansen Potash mine build in Sask on short to medium term turbulance. The BHP CEO has called it a part of a 10 year plus plan. Internally, BHP is communicating the same long term plan and are spending money building a team in Saskatoon regardless of the spot price (related parties work there). International players have not shown their hand and are a wildcard.
Hathor and FCU resources are valuable inventory that will in all liklihood not be produced for 10 to 15 years into the future for longterm strategic plans (all the planned China reactors will be built and the shale decline curve will be a wild card). It would not be feasable to believe the produced price of U308 will be at $30 in 2030. The short term spot price will not matter once actual bidding process begins. I do not believe the bidding for FCU will commence in earnest until the resource is 70 percent or more defined (as we are talking hundreds of millions of dollars). FCU is maybe 50% defined with another $20 to 30 million in drilling to go.
I am going golfing and letting this puppy ride (got my stink bids in as it's wallmart out there). A year from now this is going to get really interesting as the rumours fly and the resources pile up.