RBCLooks like they agree with my assessment. They maintain their Sector Outperfom rating and the last target I had for them was $18.00. GLTA
May 6, 2014
Veresen Inc.
First Glance: Solid Q1/14 cash flow driven by wide
AECO-Chicago basis
Impact: modestly positive
First impression
Q1/14 results benefited from a wide AECO-Chicago basis. Veresen's
Q1/14 ACFFO/share was $0.28 compared to our estimate of $0.22 and
$0.22 in Q1/13. The stronger-than-expected cash flow was almost entirely
due to the ability to take advantage of the wide basis differential between
Alberta and Chicago gas prices.
Aux Sable did well, but it was not frac spread driven. Aux Sable recorded
$26 million in equity income compared to our estimate of $3 million and
$3 million in Q1/13. Businesses in the segment that usually fly under the
radar drove a significant increase in earnings by capitalizing on the wide
AECO-Chicago basis. The more prominent Channahon NGL extraction
facility did not generate any margin-based leased revenues (i.e., frac
spread profit share under the BP contract) due to the high Chicago gas
price that negatively impacted frac spreads.
Guidance range tightened; midpoint unchanged. For distributable cash,
the new guidance is a range of $0.97 to $1.20 per share (previously $0.93
to $1.25 per share). The midpoint of the range remains at $1.09 per share.
Positive view on the quarter due to the extra cash generation. Although
the strong results based on the wide AECO-Chicago basis are not likely to
recur, we see the extra cash flow generated as a modest positive for the
share price given the relatively tight payout ratio and the development
spending for the Jordan Cove LNG project.
Conference call: Wednesday, May 7, at 9:00AM (ET). The dial-in number
is (888) 231-8191 (conference ID: 31519358). Topics we expect to be
discussed on the conference call include an update on Jordan Cove
(particularly on binding tolling agreements with prospective customers,
the FERC approval process and partnership negotiations), the status
of Alliance re-contracting, and other acquisition and development
opportunities.