Aroway Energy Inc ARWJF

RE:RE:RE:RE:West Hazel and Kirkpatrick Help

[davpro]

Green you shouldn't bother trying to explain things to people. Unfortunately there are a lot of people who didn't or don't understand some basic concepts in the oil game. Cooper got a bad rap because he used to release news regarding initial flow rates however these rates are not sustainable and eventually fall off to a low decline steady state production level. For Kirkpatrick the the initial decline on the first well was proplonged beyond what was normal for that type of well however the production level at 90 - 100 boe/d could be long lived and in fact since the netback are so high with operating costs so low those two wells alone could almost supply the projected capex of 12 to 14 million. This would leave the cashflow available from WH free to further pay down debt and accelerate expansion... the numbers work all one has to do is sharpen a pencil and use a bit of math while setting aside the emotion. 

In view of this I'm afraid I have to eat a bit of crow and apologise to Raj... since the warrant cash isn't really needed and in fact will not be available to ARW until such time as Kerrobert proves out.. then yes the repricing is an unnecessary and artificial reward to a select few shareholders. However even though that may be true that doesn't mean that ARW automatically becomes a bad investment... a buy now at these prices would yield a 30% return before those warrants are in the money.