Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Sector Outperform from Peters & Co.

[bshort92]

I can agree with you on that. My points are explaining why the beat down again. The beatdowns last year were caused by production plummeting 3000 boe/d from 19,200 post Waseca purchase to last years pre Black Shire buy at 16,200 boe/d. That was almost a 20% loss of production. This year the guidance went from 24,500 boe/d to 22,500 boe/ for year end. With break up occuring they are at probably 21,500 boe/d already 1700 boe/d less post Black Shire. The thread is the market wants consistency and predictability not just dividend wise but production wise. Start under promising and over delivering. Next: If Black Shire sold $40 netback medium oil production to TBE for $50 k a flowing boe what is TBE's production worth including 12,000 boe/d heavy oil? Q1 showed cummulative $28 netback. They have to get higher netbacks plus lower decline rates=emphasize horizontal drilling. A hit to reserves being revised does not help. But they need to get more aggressive and more accountable. That's why the PWT guys are in. Can they pull this off to make them a viable player or do they stumble for a fourh time?