RE:AGM notesThanks fruiscante1:
So my source was pretty accurate, they only have 10 or 11k bpd oil takeaway capacity for the next two years. Let's call it 10k for now as you heard. This is the bad news.
The good news is this does not seem to slow their overall plans though with talk of expanding the Ante Creek - Waskahigan pipeline already.
First Production View (Conservative)
So let's say they exit 2014 at 14k boepd. Of this, about 3,500 boepd will be gas, leaving 11.5k bpd of oil. 6k bpd of this oil will be from the Waskahigan battery (will decline as they don't seem to intend to drill much more in Waskahigan/Grizzly). 5.5k bpd of this will be Ante Creek oil.
Second View (More Aggressive)
Intuition (logic?) tells me that they will be filling the entire AC - Waskahigan line in 2014Q4/2015Q1. This will add another 4 - 4.5 k bpd of oil production. This will all have to be trucked.
Thus, RMP could be exiting as high as 18k boepd this year (14k + 4k). This is close to what RYU calculated yesterday over on the the IV board. He (she?) estimated a 2014 exit of 16,887 boepd. Here is the link:
https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=17397&mn=22976&pt=msg&mid=13888387
So whether it is 17k or 18k boepd exit, it would be an astounding increase over 2013's 7,500 boepd exit: provisos for this success being 1) they nail the next few Ante Creek wells, 2) Simonette/Phase II comes up soon, and 3) RMP can stabilize the AC - Waskahigan pipe as they turn up all the boomer Ante Creek wells in Q4.
Back to the cigar box.
Larsen6