RE:April ProductionNice detective work bmofoshizz!
Based upon this production data provided from Petrinex, we can make the following assumptions:
1. 1950 bpd x 30 days in April = 58,500 boe monthly production.
2. 58,500 bbls / 26 actual producing days = 2,250 bpd daily production.
3. Last company news stated that STP McKay produced 1987 bpd over the previous quarter.
Therefore production in April showed a net improvement of 263 bpd, over previous company reported volumes or a 13.24% increase. It is safe to assume this production increase came from the previous 2 ICD installations.
The company reported that 2P1 was testing between 700 - 900 bpd in February. Overall production from this well in February was reported by the company at 695 bpd. Next the company reported that 2P1 produced an avg of 609 bpd in March but was intentionally cut back to 400 bpd due to an operational abnormality. Mr Lutes eluded to the fact in his conference call that this was purely a precautionary measure and the well was gradually being opened up. The company also reported at the end of March that the Company is pleased with the performance of the first 2 ICD installations.
If you take in to account April's production increase and factor in the same production improvement in May it gives you a forecasted volume of 2,548 bpd, as per example below.
2,250 bpd x 13.24% potential production increase = ~298 bpd. Now take 298 bpd + 2,250 = 2,548 bpd.
IMO this would be a conservative estimate for May. It would all depend on how fast 2P1 is ramping up and what percentage of gains are being realized on 1P5.
It is interesting, that in the one pictures that nikehercules took, it validates proof of the volume of trucks hauling from the site. Consider these facts:
1. Those trucks have a hauling capacity of 40 m3, but axle weight restrictions limit them to carry approx 38 m3.
2. 38 m3 = 239.012809257 bbls.
3. Those 6 trucks hauled a total of 1,434 bbls for that single fill up.
4. Those 6 trucks haul 24 hrs per day. Based upon loading, unloading, sleep, travel time to and from the rail car unloading facility, it is safe to assume that they can make 2 trips each per day.
5. 6 trucks x 1434 bbls x 2 trips per day = ~2,868 bpd.
We can expect that June production will fall somewhat over the previous month as 2P5 is now shut in for the ICD workover. But that said, if we can realize the same 87% percent production increase on 2P5, that we saw initially on 2P1, then all will be good.
Overall the company is making great strides towards obtaining a break even production rate. I'm looking forward to seeing that ton of dough $$$$ that Shatnersrug has eluded to, at some point down the road.
Looking forward to what happens after 2P5. Will the service rig continue with the program? Will the company release news soon? Time will tell. That's my 2 cents worth.
GLTA!