GREY:ROAOF - Post by User
Comment by
Grease99on Jun 26, 2014 4:47pm
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Post# 22698305
RE:RE:still puzzling who s selling
RE:RE:still puzzling who s selling
Long time reader, first time posting here under LGX. I have built a nice position in this company after doing months of my own internal DD. As a native Albertan living and working here, this makes the DD a little easier than if I lived on the East Coast (nothing against anyone out there).
I have come to the same conclusion that most folks on this forum have. LGX is in a position to become an entirely different company if things pan out. I agree, I have not seen and spuds yet from LGX which suggests they are delayed slightly by the floods that occured in Southern Alberta. This should have little to no impact IMO. The sage grouse ruling will be quite important in my view because I seem to recall with their Bakken in very prelminary stages, the Manyberries assets accounts for ~50% of their 2P reserves. So any future drilling that may not be allowed could certainly mean a significant reduction in Future Development Capital (FDC) and the reserves associate with that FDC. However, if they can book 370MBoe's of reserves per well on their Bakken wells then that might only be a minor bump in the road. 370 MBoe of reserves is massive - these are some really strong wells if the reserves auditor was comfortable assigning those to each undeveloped location.
I am thinking 001 Anonymous is like RJ as well. I believe the reporting requirements are only when a 2% change has occured? Therefore, it will be very interesting to watch RJ's share count (9.7 MM as of April 2013) to see if it has changed at all in the next insider reporting. RJ's average price is likely much higher than current levels (my guess around 0.70 based on Dec 2013- April 2013 buying). RJ was a new reporting insider as of April 2013. Although they could have owned just under 10% for a while and simply crossed the 10% threshold in April 2013. Anyways, with the share price where it's at it is almost certain RJ is under water.
Why would they sell now? It seems like all the wait might finally come to fruition after years and years of anticipation. The risk / reward scenario is more favourable than it has ever been for this company based on my DD.
Also, one more comment. Not everything that glitters is gold....and not every big buyer is an institution. I feel fortunate (and chuckle a little to myself) when I see the posts from a month back saying "Scotia buying heavy" etc. That was me. I trade with Scotia. I own a little over 1.1% of the common shares of LGX and built my position over the past several months. GLTA.