RE:It appears to me that 34.5 Cents, is a bonus priceIn my opinion, $0.345 is a fair price for PTA + SRN.
Reason is (based on my calculation and assumption), the discounted NAVPS for PTA + SRN is $0.35. Keep in mind that this analysis does not take into account all the hidden gems from undeveloped lands that SRN may have (in other words, my calculation and assumption are following a conservative approach). If PTA discovers those hidden gems, the share price will be adjusted accordingly.
| | Market Capital | Total Debt | Total Cash | Cash Flow
TTM | Shares Outstanding | Operating Net Back | 1P Reserve
90% Chance (BOE) | 2P Reserve
50% Chance (BOE) | BOEPD | NPV10*
(2P Reserve) | | EV | EV/BOED | EV/2P | EV/Cash Flow | NPV10/
Shares | 1P Reserve
Life Exp. (Days) | 2P Reserve
Life Exp. (Days) | Discounted NAVPS
(NAV: Cash - Debt + PV10) |
| PTA | $ 199,440,000 | $ 31,200,000 | $ 104,000,000 | $ 37,000,000 | 614,623,454 | $ 60.00 | 3,100,000 | 4,900,000 | 6,500 | $ 194,800,000 | | $ 126,640,000 | $ 19,483 | $ 26 | $ 3.42 | $ 0.32 | 477 | 754 | $ 0.44 |
| PTA + SRN | $ 285,870,000 | $ 31,200,000 | $ 51,000,000 | $ 41,450,000 | 858,000,000 | $ 56.00 | 5,167,000 | 8,036,000 | 9,000 | $ 284,000,000 | | $ 266,070,000 | $ 29,563 | $ 33 | $ 6.42 | $ 0.33 | 574 | 893 | $ 0.35 |
| PRE | $ 6,620,000,000 | $ 3,824,313,000 | $ 306,419,000 | $ 388,810,000 | 313,780,000 | $ 63.60 | 389,340,000 | 618,000,000 | 324,938 | $ 12,075,000,000 | | $ 10,137,894,000 | $ 31,199 | $ 16 | $ 26.07 | $ 38.48 | 1198 | 1902 | $ 27.27 |
| CNE | $ 730,000,000 | $ 130,000,000 | $ 35,699,000 | $ 21,500,000 | 107,590,000 | $ 45.00 | 29,700,000 | 40,600,000 | 10,893 | $ 842,000,000 | | $ 824,301,000 | $ 75,673 | $ 20 | $ 38.34 | $ 7.83 | 2727 | 3727 | $ 6.95 |
| *NPV10 is Net Present Value of Future Cash Flow Before Tax (Based on 2P) |