GREY:SGLRF - Post by User
Comment by
sanityseekeron Jul 17, 2014 7:39pm
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Post# 22757448
RE:RE:RE:Let's see/read what Bill Bonner
RE:RE:RE:Let's see/read what Bill BonnerSeems to me that Joanne's aversion to the debt is quite reasonable and understandable. SGL;s debt is not long dated bonds that are insulated from movements on interest rates like many companies with high leverage. Their debt matures every year or so and needs to be refinanced each year, so they are constantly at the mercy of the bank, and dependent on their relationship with the bank.<br /> <br /> in any case relying on the views of the fun managers to validate this investment is flawed for a couple reasons: 1. If you think there judgement is more reliable than yours, you should expect to have better investment results by investing in their funds than buying some some of their recommendations and not others, and probably with worse timing, so why don't you. 2. Your almost certain to attribute a lot of weight to the commentators that like the stock, and dismiss the comments of those that take the other view on the basis that they have a different investing style (e.g., they are overly averse to debt) or are wrong. Such selective bias generally will only lead to false confidence.<br /> <br /> Historically, posters here have emphasized positive bnn comments on sgl, and failed to acknowledge or downplayed the negative comments, which may prove my point.
In my view, the low opinions of analysts about this company and lack of interest by fund managers has one positive, being that all such negativity is likely priced in, and there is therefore little downside risk. I only hope that means there is upside potential. Also, this is the reason I don't expect a dividend cut to hurt share price.