is about to be excommunincated by the Beastie Boys for these comments:
Not likely, IMO. ICL raised $275 million in ~10 year debentures (eg. unsecured) late last year at LIBOR + ~2.3%. 1 year LIBOR rate is hovering around 55 basis points. In other words, they're getting 10 year financing for less than 3%. It was also over-subscribed.
Allana will be extremely lucky to get financing at less than double what ICL can get it at.
https://repo.icl-group.com/Lists/ReportsManagement/Immediate%20Reports/2013/Raising%20$%20275%20Million%20Through%20a%20Private%20Placement%20of%20Debentures%20in%20the%20US%20-%20November%207,%202013.pdf
Don't expect a post-financing buy out. There's a reason the ICL warrants have a 3 year exercise window. That gives 1 year for financing + 2 years for construction.
How many big capital projects run over budget? Most of them. The earliest I see a buy out happening is 6 months before ICL's warrants expire - or about two years from now. That should coincide with the last leg of construction at which point construction risk (mainly cost, but also technical) should more or less be known.
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Re: Speculation on financing.
Sadly the ICL deal all but guarantees the most any of us can expect to see out of this is about $2 a share assuming Allana gets its full NPV, we see $425/ton potash prices and there is very little further equity dilution (doesn't seem likely).
I guess there's something to be said for the "potential" of SOP production and 2Mtpa or the possibility of higher potash prices, but given the supply situation I would not count on any of that and I think we'll be lucky if potash is $425/ton by the time the company is taken out.
Although I am super skeptical that ICL will take this project out shortly after financing, if they offered $1.50 per share at that time I would take it. That's about as good as I think anyone who holds to the end (eg another 2 years or longer) is likely to get and I'd rather deploy my capital tied up in Allana into other companies in my portfolio.