Trends, Friends and the Out of the BOX viewpoint
Like any business, mine all sell a product or a service. That product or service comes with a variety of uses, across different lines, and a graduated fee or service charge income system.
Our repeat business is important but not as important as the initial sale, service and warranty of the product or service. More important than the repeat business though is the fact that when we have a new product to offer, we have a ready client list and future exponential word of mouth, social media or referral based advertising.
So I was laying in bed last night, and staring at the ceiling wondering how a POET would look with a similar income model.
Now not having had much time to work out how the semicon industry does its revenue models, I put together some numbers from what i could quickly find rattling around the net, and came up with some my own targets.
I assumed that with a steady progression, promotion, and exposure, would give us a decent if not generous market share. I assumed that with that resultant exposure that the general populace would steadily and maybe even maniacally create demands for the product. Thus having done that it would bring in more device builders who demand the product based on their customer base frenzied requests for less power draw and greater computing power. Which inn turn will embolden the app market for growth with more, better, faster, more creative, apps to run on the new POET powered phones. Laptops, TVs, cameras, tablets, video game consoles, automotive uses, power plant control systems, building management systems, collision avoidance systems, missile guidance systems, aircraft management and avionics systems, children s toys, alarm systems, locks, digital books, appliances, audio recording, video recording, What of opticals and lazers ?
The hardest thing to throw on the mix was the fact that the uses for this are multi multi and the fact that there are products that have not been created as yet or are under development and/or we have no ideas what they will be.
Not to overuse the term exponential, but everything about this is exponential, multiples of multiples....cash upon cash returns.
So......how much market share ? ....and when....say 10-15% in year 2-3. How many vertical markets, uses and varieties of incarnation uses ? How many licenses, consumer electronics devices, other uses ? How much clamoring by a wondrous public will occur and also help to push valuation ? (Apple alone comes to mind $700 dollar pre split).What about demand on a global basis for the next coming of christ so to speak in the tech industry, or any global industry for that matter..........does mania build onto mania ? Will we attract investment from Berkshire Hathaway ?
What will earnings numbers be and what will our PE ratio be ? 20 times or 100 times as some have suggested ?
Will we have a share price in the 10's or 100's or even the 1000's ala Samsung ? I have calculated them all...and stick by the numbers. Scoff if you want, I don't care what the negative nellies think...all it takes is a little out of the box thinkin'..............
I know what my ultimate departure point is......and its well into 3 figures.
Whats yours....