RE:Risk ReducingDoug2B wrote:
Although the FPF1 delay was frustrating and has delayed GSA first oil, the FPF1 refurb is not the high risk part of the project IMO. The greater risks lay in the sub sea work which has gone swimmingly and is largely de-risked now.
Interesting how PFC had to explain to their shareholders why the PFC GSA revenue was delayed as the smaller PFC share (20% as I recall) was significant to their future profits - Ithaca is about one eight the size of PFC (market cap) with nearer three times the GSA revenue coming its way - puts things into perspective.
PFC's message to shareholders re FPF1 delay was more expansive than IAE's, they basically said that elements of the work had to be completed before winter and doggedly trying to keep to that schedule would introduce unacceptable risks to the project. PFC was a major holding of mine from 2009 and I became quite familiar with their modus operandi. If they make a call such as the GSA delay, they usually get the call right and then put great effort into the final delivery phase.
Doug
Doug, thanks for that. I agree completely. The delay of the FPF-1 was and is frustrating - no argument. Everyone is frustrated by that, but it's not like these guys just decided to take 6 months off and go on a golfing vacation - ha. There are legitmate reasons for the delay and if more people would dig a little, as you have done, they could get more of a sense as to why these delays take place. But people have this mistaken idea - it's a myth - that somehow you should be able to continuallymake quick money in the market y trading in and out. And it is all hogwash. Whenever, I read someone making those claims I know it is complete BS. No one can consistenely time the market. Whch means you are going to lose as much as you gain if that is your strategy and much more often than not, you are gong to lose a lot more than you gain. Look at all the shorting that has been taking place on the TSX and the DJ over the past 8 months. Everyone is expecting the market to correct and they just keep chugging along. The TSX is now into unchartered territory. Sure, a correction is coming, but you'd need a time machine to try to figure out exactly when it is going to happen. Point is, it takes tremendous work and time and luck to get a company like Ithaca to where it is today from where it was only 6 years ago. These guys have done a tremendous job. They made some mistakes, but its what you do with those mistakes that really count. And now IAE is on the edge of making a major leap in production and cashflow and share price and ultimately yet greater growth. By no means am I married to this stock, but I do see all the flaws and potential and realized quite a while ago how the positives hugely outweigh the negative.