Petro One Energy Corp CUDBF

RE:RE:12 wells x 147bopd = 1,764bopd

[GreatSwami]

It would be interesting to find out anything about this well? And what happened to it and why it seems neither POP nor Arc have "followed their luck?"

Of course simple math like "12 wells times 147 bbls (well IP) = 1,764 bopd" is a very misguided statement. It takes time to drill the wlles and as soon as they are drilled and put into production they go into decline - sometimes very steep decline (depending on the project and the reservoir).

Even were they to drill 12 such wells during a year (spending something of the order of 18-22 million to drill and complete) - not to mention the surface facilities and tie in costs etc etc - even assuming that each well were to average 150 bopd IP rates (rounding) - by the time the last one has been put on line the first one will be down to somewhere between 40-60 bopd perhaps?

Averaging that all out would put the average daily production at the end of the year at something far closer to 1,200 bopd than that mythical 1,800 bopd number. Still very nice of course. But lets keep the math part a little more "honest."

But what worries me (and others?) is that we heave heard nothing about that first JV well drilled by ARC? That well was suppeosed to be a simple farm in well and if successful there were to be two follow up wells? What happened? Did that first Frobisher well prematurely water out before any significant oil production? (A very common happenstance in this part of the Saskatchewan oil patch). I am looking at their presentation and the well they have mapped looks "marginally" placed? I know Husky had a go at drilling these Frobisher plays not too far away several years ago now and while some of their misfortunes were due to poor well placement in the zone - even when they did it all "right" the economics were pretty "skinny?" (And they abandoned the project).

Maybe I should submit a request to the Saskatchewan Govt and get the files on that well? That would (might?) give a decent appraisal of the chances of some of the others in the portfolio?

JMHO

GS