RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:injection estimates Storage build is lower than market expectations. Market expectations called for a build of 84 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m., the price for the September natural gas futures contract fell 1 cent to $3.96/MMBtu on the Nymex.
From the week ending on April 4 through the week ending on August 1, net storage injections have totaled 1,567 Bcf versus 1,227 Bcf for the same 18 weeks in 2013, and 1,183 Bcf for these weeks between 2009 and 2013, on average. The average unit value of what storage holders put into storage from April 4 to August 1 was $4.45/MMBtu, 15% higher than the average value for the same 18 weeks last year of $3.88/MMBtu. The highest winter-month Nymex price (for the January 2015 contract) in trading for the week ending on August 1 averaged $4.02/MMBtu. This is 23 cents more than the front month Nymex contract price for that week (the August 2014 contract through the July 29 trade date, and the September 2014 contract starting on the July 30 trade date). A year ago, the difference was 38 cents/MMBtu, providing a bit more financial incentive to buy and store gas in the summer for sale in the winter.
There are currently 13 more weeks in the injection season, which traditionally occurs April 1 through October 31, although in many years injections continue into November. EIA forecasts that the end-of-October working natural gas inventory level will be 3,431 Bcf, which, as of August 1, would require an average injection of 80 Bcf per week through the end of October. EIA's forecast for the end-of-October inventory levels are below the five-year (2009-13) average peak storage value of 3,851 Bcf. To reach the five-year average peak value, average weekly injections through the end of October would need to be 112 Bcf.