OTCPK:PILBF - Post by User
Comment by
aggmanon Aug 13, 2014 2:57pm
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Post# 22838028
RE:RE:RE:RE:New thread: Catch all of last 4-5 posts
RE:RE:RE:RE:New thread: Catch all of last 4-5 postsa few points to shape your analysis. As volumes increase, unit costs will drive down - we are starting to see that trend. I think unit costs went down 80 centston QoQ - this is good.
Run your numbers again with an assumption of Cogs = ave. $9.5/ton on a 6M-7M ton business.
4.5M in SFO Bay
2.0 M in LA
0.5M in Hawaii + other
I think pricing assumptions at $15 and $20/ton in SFO and PoLB on these vols are solid (in 24 months).
You need to also back out the lack of any marketing agrement in PoLB - that crimps margin in SF Bay.
Also - I think you'll find Polaris will leverage other resource positions and its infrastructure to be a higher volume business - with its own resource, or that of third parties.
It has Eagle Rock - which will be a higher priced ASP, and margin.