RE:RE:From SAThanks for the video link.
Would be better if DM worked on getting the PFS done and released. At 50ktpd and $ 2.5 bn capex the NPV and IRR will not be mindblowing at all. Plug in the numbers in a spreadsheet and you will see for yourself. Or just look at the earlier 40ktpd PEA, crank up the $ 1.3 bn capital cost (and operating costs), put a tax layer on it and see what happens.
I became concerned when TMM pre-released these parameters and drew my conclusions when Anto bailed out. Yes, they bailed out - they're still in TMM, but gave away control and can be bought out, how extremely unlikely the latter may be for various reasons.
DM now worth $ 62MM at $0.45, but don't forget to add the $40MM+ in debt, of which $ 30MM bears interest at 7.5%. And new financing will be needed very, very soon. With this kind of debt, DM is one of the few resource exploration companies that can actually go bankrupt - most others, how piss poor they might be, are mostly 100% equity financed.
TMM will go on the back burner if PFS disappoints, because there is no way DM will be able to put up 60% of costs. It will become an exploration company again, hunting for them massive sulphides and PGMs in them hills. Well, I'm not interested in exploration, nor are the institutional holders, I would think. And no need to put a $100M EV price tag on looking for a needle in the haystack. There is and will just be the TMM optionality.
Very curious if DM will modify the PFS that was nearly complete and release a higher throughput, like the max 80 ktpd I used to thought they would model. On the other hand, if so, why wasn't that throughput picked in the first place? We know Dundas is a bit of a pumper, of the sad kind though, with his '$100 bn monster deposit', and the May 1 2014 'nickel highlight' press release low as the most desperate PR attempt I have ever witnessed in capital markets.
So I agree: a huge resource, one of the world's largest, YES. Economical? I have a lot of doubts now, and doubts are growing with DM probably tuning the PFS. If it is mindblowing, it would have been released weeks ago. Not smart to wait this long with the SP dropping, but hey, whoever said DM management was competent? The Anto-option conference call made it clear that Dundas is still running the show - not Osborne, which I expected. Well I am patient and still curious to see what they come up with, like all of you. GLTA.
BTW in the video, the guy on the right at 1:15 and cutting the band at 1:30 is Andres Morel, former CEO of TMM - he is already out, he was an Anto guy, with a good CV I might add. Thumbs up for Dundas at 3:15! :)