RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New thread: Catch all of last 4-5 postsAnd (maybe not a final thought) - they have $21M in cash and development options to explore - ranging from San Diego, to other points around LA. When you think about what "scarcity" is, there is a very strong argument stating that approved terminals are a very scare resource - possibly even more scare and more valuable than Californian mining permits in urban areas. More valuable than Polaris Mineral itself.
You can see an optimistic scenario - where they own every entry (seaborne/terminal) point up and down California (i.e. they own the front door) - and that will have a lot of value (and let me be honest - it will have a lot of value to CEMEX or Vulcan or Heidleberg - who are the majors in the space).
Polaris can then either run their aggregate into all these points, or they can act like "infrastructure owners" and charge a pass through on any operator who uses/unloads at the Terminal. I classify that as Polaris making their infrastructure sweat for shareholders - greater returns, with no risk, on existing infrastructure.
Sensibly, what will happen is a balance/blend - they may develop more Polaris resource(s) - and therefore they have influence over volumes, prices, allocation, slot scarcity and so on. The key here is that there will be a significant amount of value in their port/terminal infrastructure. (we often overlook this - thinking the value resides in the aggregate). BTW - as the economy down there has roared back - nothing but problems on rails, and in trucking. Aggregate is way down on the pecking order in aggregate - if it loses slots (and it will) - this marine delivery of aggregate into SFO, LA, other - become a highly desired/powerful/valuable solution. Its solving a significant logistics problem down in the US.
Whilst this is all good stuff (I am optimisitc) - the most front and center objective to nail down is them locking down quarter on quarter of showing how their existing model, with Orca aggregate turns a profit, in a sustainable, methodical fashion. This is the foundation stone of value, of long and strong value.
Building the upside case can and will come later - but the valuing of that upside is only going to be greater - by demonstable proof of the base case in front of us (SF profitable - standalone, PoLB running, ramped up, profitable, stable customer base in that market).
IT seems okay at $2.5, sure $2 would be better - but we may also be in a "stock price band of thoughtful pause" - and so maybe this mild slide back from $3 (it was only at $3.20 momentarily in April) - is still an attractive "re-loading point".
Let's be honest, Q3 and Q4 - both should be 1.1+M ton Q's, add to that some price improvement, and add to that some fixed end dates in PoLB and an inked constract with an LA customer - and you may see an upswing akin to what we say in early January 2014 after the business update.
GLTA (something I learned on these boards, these bullboards).