How Is Dart Playing This Bet I’ve been doing a little thinking about where Dart stands with respect to Resverlogix. Dart, is of course, the dark horse or white night. He’s the unknown. And as the 600 pound gorilla in the room, he’s the guy that has the most power to make or break us.
Therefore, it’s very important for all of us to consider him and to try and figure out how he is playing this bet. This post is to share my thoughts on the subject. I’m not putting this forth as being definitive… and I very much welcome other opinions and corrections. In other words, I’m just opening this up to debate. So with this in mind, here goes.
First of all, we all probably realize the following: The bet on Resverlogix is a one-trick pony. That pony being RVX-208, since that formula and its intellectual property represent the vast majority of the assets of Resverlogix. And with respect to this pony, we also probably all realize that the reMACE trial is make or break. Just as with ASSURE, there is likely very little middle ground. They either hit the jackpot with a successful trial or armageddon happens. I don’t see much in between.
So given this scenario, let’s first assume for argument’s sake that Dart’s intentions are less than favorable towards retail shareholders. Let’s say (again for argument’s sake) that he’s out to steal the company away from us by a dastardly deed: By ensuring the next trial is a medical failure.
Of course, I’m just assuming this for argument’s sake. But assuming it turns out somehow that this scenario is true, what does Dart get?
Well, he gets this: First, he has to pay off the Citibank loan that he guaranteed. That could be a bill of up to about $70M. Next, he’d have to buy off our shares for salvage value. That’s not going to amount to much then, but let’s say it costs him a few mil… maybe $5M. His next job would be to try and salvage the company he owns (meaning he would have to pay for continued operations until the company is sold) His total investment in that company would be much more than $75M, as we have to also consider his previous stock purchases. I don’t recall what those amount to, but its not a small sum.
In other words, he’d have a lot of money invested in a company with yet another human trial failure. Moreover, he’d have to continue investing in that losing concern (continued operations) in an event to garner enough positive data from the failed study to get some buyer interested in buying it. I think the end sale price would be pretty low - and compared to Dart’s investments over the years, he’d be lucky to get his money back.
The point of this long scenario is this: I don’t think Dart is betting on a failed trial here. A failed reMACE trial is almost as bad for him as it is for us.
To the contrary, I think Dart’s investments over the years show a steadfast belief in RVX-208. A belief that the drug will ultimately (one way or another) be proven a medical miracle. He’s bet significantly and repeatedly on RVX-208 - at virtually every opportunity. Dart is Don’s sugar daddy I guess.
Dart wins “big time” if RVX-208 has a successful reMACE trial. ReMACE would make RVX-208 a multi-billion dollar drug. Let’s say its worth $2B then. Dart’s share of this is over 1/2 billion. And I think the drug would be worth more than $2B at that time….
So in summary, I think Dart and retail shareholders are on the same page. We both win if reMACE is a success. We both lose if not. I don’t see a scenario where Dart wins and we lose.
And that’s a very good thing.
I welcome divergent opinions and look forward to reading them.
IMHO. DYODD. GLTA.