GREY:VFGGF - Post by User
Comment by
ofirmeon Aug 28, 2014 10:44pm
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Post# 22888476
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The "Nothing is New" news is out
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The "Nothing is New" news is outThe no news event is good news. you need to establish the fact that the production is resilient.
The value of the flowing bbl/day and of the land is a direvative of the stability of the production.
If the penn west slave point wells continue to exceed their expectations and the production of
pinecrest continues to hold up (through waterflooding - which was not done yet to 54 horizontal
wells), I think we will be ok.
The banks have a $165M of credit facilities to pinecrest. pinecrest has used only $113M
(towards the end of q3), so a reduction would maybe impair the ability to drill new wells. it will be
quite drastic to cut it to bellow $120M. pinecrest is only using cashflow for remediation, so they
could maintain production (or decrease the natural decline by a lot).
I think management is now very careful. they promised things in the past that did not come
through. now they are at the opposite extreme.
About a new low - I hope you are wrong. I have no idea. I am still occasionally average down.
I hope I am right by doing so.
Side note: I spoke with the cfo a couple of time in the past, but over the last month or so I can
only get to his voicemail. maybe it is only in my mind, but maybe something is going on.
The value of the tax losses plus a resilient production of ~1900bbl/day (assuming some
remediation success - only a few been tried so far and are now beginning to respond to it),
50+ horizontal wells to waterflood (year two-three) plus more waterfloodings pending approval
are worth (combined) much more than $136M (current enterprise value at $0.12).
This is all my opinion. I could be wrong.
Good luck to us.