GREY:DULMF - Post by User
Post by
materialsgirlon Sep 04, 2014 10:56am
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Post# 22905364
No need to read the tea leaves
No need to read the tea leavesIrrational dreaming can sometimes prop up the share price of a company for months or even years.
No president in her right mind would agree to take over DM even if Anto sold its share at a 70% discount from their $220m sunk cost. Let us say that a buyer paid $125m to $150m to buy out Anto and the takeover of 100% of DM.
What happens then?
More and more money would be spent each year for permitting and engineering even before major capital investments were made.
The earliest that there would be positive cash flow is about 8 years into the future. So the soonest a president could look good is 8 years away.
Looking bad can happen each day over this same time period with risks to permitting, engineering options, geology etc.
The question then becomes "who in their right mind would expose themselves to trouble for 8 years in the hope that there would be gold at the end of the 8 year rainbow". The short answer is "nobody"
This circumstance alone makes the outlook grim. Add in the need to raise lots of money via equity and it gets worse. Debt is out of the question.
Doing simple math can show losses at current commodity prices. Just sub current prices into the Prefeasibility study optimistic numbers. You should add 10% to projected costs because history shows us that even successful mines opened over the past 5 years experience costs that are 10% to 20% over feasibility numbers.
Frankly, current investors are looking a gift horse in the mouth. To be able to sell shares now for 25+ cents is a gift in my opinion. A complete collapse is almost certain this calendar year.
mat