Some additional comments on storage
Thanks for those comments last week Beginnner001.
On the subject of Storage in the Lower 48 it is safe to say now we will miss last year’s number simply because the weekly injection requirements are too large to ever expect them to be matched. So as we roll into the final weeks it just becomes a waiting game to see what the final injection figure will be. Overall production however has been robust, although most of that is coming from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. How far the nat-gas from that region can be shipped economically is a question and there is also the issue of pipeline takeaway. When prices at the Leidy Hub in PA hit 2.27 a cu. ft. it hardly is an incentive to drill. After all this isn’t altruism it’s capitalism and one would expect drilling restraint to restore some sort of balance.
As of Sept 5th “Lower 48” injections have brought us to within 13.66% of last year’s amount.
It’s a lot tougher to get up-to-date storage stats for Canada. This info (at least current info) is proprietary and if someone subscribes to a news service that supplies those figures perhaps they could post it for end of August or beyond. The following figures are month end storage % figures comparisons for 2014/ 2013.
Apr. May June July Aug.
Canada -45.3 -40.6 -33.7 -27.3 not currently published
Lower 48 stats* -43.0 -33.0 -25.0 -18.0 -15.0
As you can see the Canadian stats are trailing the American figures. This could make for a stronger AECO price throughout the winter as compared to the Henry Hub but there are many factors determine winters prices, namely the severity of the weather.
Production from the Marcellus and Utica has surged but we have yet to see the impact of that rig count being under the 400 mark consistently for 18 months by September’s end. Given the well documented depletion rate from these wells one wonders whether this current surge from the Marcellus etc might be swallowed up by a “production swoon” from an aging well demographic generally. It will certainly be interesting to see how it plays out. Same goes for the weather this winter.
*The lower 48 stats for the month end totals reported above are from my own spread sheet based on the weekly EIA injections. The weekly figures don’t coincide exactly at month end but for illustrative purposes they are good enough.