TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
Ethanbrodie123on Sep 18, 2014 3:19pm
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Post# 22949255
potential buyout
potential buyoutHere are my thoughts..
If there was a buyout of the company, I believe a fair value for the company would be an excess of 1$ per share. Although that is what I believe, if ICL does try and take out allana in the next months, I think it would be in about 2 months time when tax loss selling is at its peak. I think they will do the same when they took 16%. I think they will first excersice the rest of the warrants at .56cents or whatever and put a bit of a premium on it. I think the offer will be aroun .70.
That being said, If Management is right and there is alot of interest ect.. and the PEA looks to be extremely positive, we should all vote no as there could be some extremely positive value hidden in the SOP and the ramp up of MOP. Also, Once in production, I believe the Ethiopian Gov will most likely either bring power and/or rail much closer to the project which will decrease the opex significantly. Also, not to mention the synergies of having both productions going at the same location.
If ICL does want to take out allana, I believe the value could be much much higher than 1.00 per share (current shares outstanding) Especially after a very positive BFS of the SOP. At that time, if the project has the lowest capex to opex ratio in the world (great chance of that happening in my opinion) This company could be worth over the historical highs we have seen. Maybe even 5.00 (margin of profit for SOP being the lowest cost producer I believe could have an IRR of over 30-40%). If you do some quick math, it is obvious the immense potential of MOP and SOP, especially SOP if it is viable.
A word of caution: Historically, in my opinion, shareholders have been let down and despite milestones being achieved, the shareprice goes down. What will finally move this stock is a good or at least fair debt financing package, and a very positive PEA with interested parties... Maybe finally the losing trend would be over??