TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Ethanbrodie123on Sep 25, 2014 6:05pm
230 Views
Post# 22971526
RE:Facts on Allana
RE:Facts on AllanaI agree with most of your post...
I think that this mine will be built no doubt. BUT and a big BUT (haha) at what cost to existing shareholders... This is the MAIN reason (beyond potash pricing) why the shareprice has been weak after the ICL deal. Its a domino effect.. the further it goes down, the lower the potential equity raise will be = less of the pie in the end for existing shareholders. NOW, If I knew for certain that the equity raise would be around .60C like the ICL deal, I would be purchasing like crazy here.. I just fear that management might "sell out" and do a raise lower IE at .40 c or so. Hence the initiation of the SOP to diminish the blow to existing shareholders.. That is one possibility and I think it is the biggest risk here. I think there are many interested parties who would do the equity raise.. but at what price. ICL I think stated or inferred that they would invest, but at a "comfortable" level.. I think that means they want a bigger piece of the pie, or a lower equity raise for them than the .60 c warrants they got. I think it is part of a game as well, but still it is a very likely risk going forward.
What I think Management should do if they think the SOP would be huge is to wait for the PEA, then go to the market for potential buyout of the company all together. I think you would get a fairly high premium.. At that point, I think many players would be interested in doing the equity raise at much higher levels than today if they get a company that has tremendous mop and SOP economics.. It is also a hedge against risk for one or the other for price weakness.
I think that is the main risk here. The next decent risk is mineable potash and actual economics of the project. How different is the chemistry and geology to other "proven" solution mines???
the rest of the risks are minimal in my opinion.