Re B.C. LNG
In my previous post I commented on the fact that, - none of the minority parties in the Petronas LNG bid have pulled out was a sign that any recent comments from Petronas was merely rhetoric. Now I’m not so sure. I think that if the preliminary numbers don’t add up for them that whole bid (as an entity) will be gone. Simple as that.
It’s possible that Petronas, the very first candidate on the horizon, may very well go down; -- guessing that in round one neither side, B.C. Gov’t or Petronas will get right and this failure may pave the way for more realistic negotiations with the subsequent players. Think about it. Can one really expect the needle to be threaded on the first try? To my thinking, -- not in this case.
Seeing the money coming out of the nat-gas players that stand to benefit from LNG suggests to me that “smart money” or “risk averse” money is moving to the sidelines to await the outcome. I’m optimistic that eventually we will see LNG terminals but we may be truly surprised as to how the actual events play out. Maybe the first shall be last and the last shall be first. In that case it would be the late entrant of Imperial Oil with their application to the NEB. Now wouldn't that be a surprise? But the profitability numbers are ever shifting, - what with Japan getting ready to fire up reactors and many global entrants to the LNG market place. How can one reasonably forecast anything approaching accuracy with billions involved,lcompetitive pressurs, long timelines to get up and running and endless negotiation with several layers of government. But these are the realities.