RE:RE:I am getting cautiousEnd of July WTI crude was trading at $105.68. Today WTI had hit $81.61 & closed around $81.90. That is about 22.5% drop in just over two months. This month oil was mostly above $90 & in just matter of days it has dropped about $9 that is too fast. If Saudis stance was different then I would have treated it as dip & buying opportunity & expect a bounce in matter of short time. I like to catch bottoms. While catching falling knives one has to be very careful to ensure that one does not invest all of the funds too early.
Statements coming from Saudis could be based on some political & or financial strategy. It could be about Russia & Iran or maybe both & also US elections. It could be to scare OPEC members to get in line. I do not know or care what the reason is. The only thing I am interested in is to know if this is a dip or a much lower multiyear price range.
Saudis are the only one that can make a difference & put a floor . Other members count but do not have much clout individually. They can collective cut, besides Kuwait they have much more pressing financial needs. They are interested in a much higher price as some of them have capacity issues.
I want to believe that this short term because. If this short term price is just dip then this is one great opportunity to position oneself in Div paying oil stocks get huge dividend & reap the huge capital appreciation that would follow in due course. But if the prices are depressed for a long time then you can only hope for range bound stocks with a negative bias. The only way to make money is range bound & pullback trading. In a depressed market even big dividends do not amount to much because the loss in share prices can be huge and could be many times the amount of dividend.
Everything is very oversold. We are very close to the floor for WTI. Yet there has been no bounce yet. Instead today there was huge cross the board sell off based on Saudi comments. Some investors believe that there could be a multiyear depression in oil prices. Markets have a tendancy of over swinging.
Lot of oil stocks sold off & created new lows today. There were 252 stocks on TSX that created 52 week low today. There is lot of fear which is good & normally results in capitulation. Oversold oil stocks can bounce but they will be more of dead cat bounces but the rallies & proper recovery will be based on bounce back in oil prices.
|
RANK
|
COUNTRY |
(BBL/DAY) |
DATE OF INFORMATION |
|
|
|
| 4 |
China |
4,197,000
|
2013 est.
|
|
| 6 |
Iran |
3,594,000
|
2012 est.
|
|
| 8 |
Iraq |
2,979,000
|
2013 est.
|
|
| Data for this Date Range |
|
| Oct. 6, 2014 |
90.33 |
| Oct. 3, 2014 |
89.76 |
| Oct. 2, 2014 |
91.02 |
| Oct. 1, 2014 |
90.74 |
| Sept. 30, 2014 |
91.17 |
| Sept. 29, 2014 |
94.53 |
| Sept. 26, 2014 |
95.55 |
| Sept. 25, 2014 |
93.59 |
| Sept. 24, 2014 |
93.60 |
| Sept. 23, 2014 |
91.55 |
| Sept. 22, 2014 |
91.46 |
| Sept. 19, 2014 |
92.43 |
| Sept. 18, 2014 |
93.07 |
| Sept. 17, 2014 |
94.33 |
| Sept. 16, 2014 |
94.91 |
| Sept. 15, 2014 |
92.86 |
| Sept. 12, 2014 |
92.18 |
| Sept. 11, 2014 |
92.89 |
| Sept. 10, 2014 |
91.71 |
| Sept. 9, 2014 |
92.73 |
| Sept. 8, 2014 |
92.64 |
| Sept. 5, 2014 |
93.32 |
| Sept. 4, 2014 |
94.51 |
| Sept. 3, 2014 |
95.50 |
| Sept. 2, 2014 |
92.92 |
|
|
| Aug. 29, 2014 |
97.86 |
| Aug. 28, 2014 |
96.44 |
| Aug. 27, 2014 |
95.82 |
| Aug. 26, 2014 |
95.78 |
| Aug. 25, 2014 |
95.39 |
| Aug. 22, 2014 |
93.61 |
| Aug. 21, 2014 |
93.97 |
| Aug. 20, 2014 |
96.40 |
| Aug. 19, 2014 |
94.35 |
| Aug. 18, 2014 |
96.44 |
| Aug. 15, 2014 |
97.30 |
| Aug. 14, 2014 |
95.54 |
| Aug. 13, 2014 |
97.57 |
| Aug. 12, 2014 |
97.36 |
| Aug. 11, 2014 |
98.09 |
| Aug. 8, 2014 |
97.61 |
| Aug. 7, 2014 |
97.34 |
| Aug. 6, 2014 |
96.93 |
| Aug. 5, 2014 |
97.34 |
| Aug. 4, 2014 |
98.26 |
| Aug. 1, 2014 |
97.86 |
| July 31, 2014 |
98.23 |
| July 30, 2014 |
104.29 |
| July 29, 2014 |
104.91 |
| July 28, 2014 |
105. |