RE:Analysis of oil from another boardFrom IV Mart Resources Board (vs. clicking the link posted)
There have been a lot of questions recently regarding oil producers and the apparently ongoing declines in their share prices. It seems people have been having trouble getting their bearings and are coming simultaneously to the questions ‘should I be buying now?’ and ‘should I be selling and exiting the sector?’ With the same thoughts in mind I found it useful recently to look at the 5-yr chart on the WTI oil price. Outside of their own operational issues, successful producers rise and fall with the oil price. The path of the oil price since a trough valuation on May 17, 2010 can be described in terms of the following series of upward “runs” and downward “slides.” Each run or slide represents at least a $15 change in the price of oil and I was interested in how long each move lasted and the magnitude of the price change in each case. This is what the chart says in those terms:
• May 17/2010 to May 2/2011 (nearly 1 year duration) – Trough to Peak run from approximately $70 to $114
• May 2/2011 to Oct 3/2011 (5 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $114 to $74
• Oct 3/2011 to February 27/2012 (5 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $74 to $110
• Feb 27/2012 to June 18/2012 (4 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $110 to $77
• June 18/2012 to Sept 10/2012 (3 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $77 to $100
• Sept 10/2012 Oct 29/2012 (1.5 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $100 to $85
• Oct29/2012 to Sept 2/2013 (10 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from to $85 to $110
• Sept 2/2013 to Jan 6/2014 (4 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $110 to $91
• Jan 6/2014 to June 16/2014 (5 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $91 to $107
• June 16/2014 to Oct 10*/2014 (4 months duration – * still going) – Peak to Trough slide from $107 to $85
Of course one has to consider that past patterns do not guarantee future paths and for one reason or another ‘it might be different this time.’ But that aside, a number of observations may be made. In each case the next significant move in the opposite direction followed immediately on the heels of the prior one. The longest slide was about 5 months long. The present slide is nearly 4 months long already, about the same duration as two of the other four slides in the past 5 years. So from that perspective what we are presently experiencing is nothing out of the ordinary and each past similar instance has resolved into a nice run to the upside. Unless it is different this time, 4 months of sliding puts us much nearer to the end of the slide than to the beginning.
In dollar values, the magnitudes of the past slides are (oldest to most recent): $40, $33, $15, and $19. The present move is $22, so far. Again, unless something makes this time different, the present slide will likely end with an intraday trough price somewhere between the present $85 and the previous lowest lows of $74. Again, but in dollar terms this time, that would put us closer to the end of the move than to the beginning.
Overall, I’d note that this particular slide has so far shown us nothing out of the ordinary and for that it should provide us no reason to panic. No good quality producer is put in danger of failing as a business enterprise by virtue of a short term commodity price slide. But it may be important to stress “good quality” in that observation. On the other hand, the shares of even the best quality oil producers have become significantly cheaper during the present slide. Whenever similar share price declines have occurred in the past five years, it has provided a good opportunity to add high quality producers to one’s portfolio (and some very nice ‘Yield on Cost’ numbers as well).
Hope that’s useful to someone!