RE:Stella will happen...
good sensible post motown but i'll offer a little of my take on a few things in it just because i'm bored.
1st you say the holders of the notes might take a haircut but iae is safe. only way that can happen is they sell the notes on the open market before they expire. if they get a haircut when they are due that would mean iae is sol, kaput, as they will still be paid ahead of any equity holders the way understand the rating. i could be wrong but don't think so
2nd we don't know how much extra cash they will have eaten thru on all those workovers, the failed pump, the stella delay, possible winter weather shut downs and or damage, possible debt crisis in europe, recession in europe, plus the price of oil. they may be funding a lot more capex and production costs by adding more debt if they don''t have the free cash flow. my concern is they reach their debt limit before stella and then run into a problem. i'm anxious to see the numbers in the q report in a few weeks.
if all goes ok you are probably right, one of the better more informed posts i've seen on this board. hopefully oil doesn't drop too low and stay there too long. I have been less than impressed with iae's numbers the last few quarters. i think this one could be the worst so far. total debt could be close to 800 mil already.
cheers ferret