OTCPK:PILBF - Post by User
Post by
aggmanon Oct 31, 2014 10:11pm
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Post# 23084295
The cycle, foundational investors and the future
The cycle, foundational investors and the futureFrozen in Ontario:
I'm fascinated by this cycle - there is indeed the analysis and reading of the tea leaves:
1. The US is not going back to 2006 construction high any time soon. No highway bill and the US is not adding 2.05M housing units per annum. So, realistically in this cycle - where does aggregate vol go back to?
1 (b) I differ with you a little - I dont think we are in early innings of the construction cycle - but honestly, I am confused. Look at equity markets - and we are about to enter the 7th year since Jan 2009 nadir - construction is clearly out of sync with that ( a bit naturally, bit its also lagged by 0.25 of a cycle because of the beat down.
1 (c) I agree with you in this - construction recovery does have another 3-4 years - abviously with a bunch of caveats about shocks - and lets be honest there will be 1-2 shocks.
2. Cali fundamentals are good on the demand side - particularly NoCal and now Socal (pricing and volume tensioining up - this is good).
3. Yes, no new sources/permits in PLS markets - plays to PLS's strengths.
4. They need to show us entry in Port of Long Beach.
5. Irwin Jacobs, Fidelity and others - the foundational pieces - they still stick in the stock and they probably accumulated when it was at 25-40 cents. Irwin has been patient.
6. I agree: if planning, execution go well - and market demand is healthy - you can see PLS being at $8.