RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:It is this simple
The share price has fallen much further than I had expected but I still maintain that IAE has the potential to be trading well above $3 once Stella is fully operational and assuming that it is not plagued by ongoing and material production issues as experienced by Huntington (INA et al) and Athena. I conservatively assume that with current production decline rates of existing fields we will see total daily net IAE production post-Stella of 22-30k assuming no further producing asset acquisitions in the near term (which I do not expect given their debt level). I am also assuming $85-$100 Brent to achieve my $3+ target. In spite of a continuing shale oil boom I don't see this Brent trading range as unreaslistic given the marginal cost of finding and developing new production sources. Of course there are conditions that will make the Brent price periodically spike above and below this range over time, but I don't make longer term investment decisions based on the possibility of short term aberrations. Just a few of my thoughts/assumptions.