RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:It is this simplePeak,, we think alike, see my model below. Please, do not hesitate to poke holes into it. We will know more next Thursday...
Again, AIMO, do your own DD...
| | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 H1 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 (1) |
| | Full year | Full year | YTD | YTD | Full year | Full year | Full year |
| in M$ | Actuals | Actuals | Actuals | forecast | forecast | forecast | forecast |
| Revenue | 171 | 414 | 200 | 295 | 400 | 578 | 788 |
| Cost of sales (excl DD&A) | -79 | -169 | -90 | -150 | -205 | -289 | -361 |
| G & A | -5 | -9 | -5 | -8 | -10 | -11 | -13 |
| Realised derivative gain / (loss) | 4 | 13 | -3 | -4 | -5 | | |
| Other non-recurrent | 0 | -5 | 0 | -12 | -12 | | |
| Total cost of operations | -80 | -170 | -98 | -174 | -232 | -300 | -374 |
| Cashflow from operations | 91 | 244 | 102 | 121 | 168 | 278 | 414 |
| | 53.0% | 58.9% | 51.2% | 41.2% | 42.0% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| Capex | -166 | -356 | -253 | -300 | -360 | -180 | -150 |
| Working capital variations | 7 | 90 | -33 | -9 | | | |
| Cost of acquisitions | 0 | -342 | | -163 | -163 | | |
| Banks costs, fees + interests | 0 | -18 | | 0 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Others | 5 | -30 | | | | | |
| Other cashflow excl debt drawdown | -155 | -656 | -286 | -472 | -573 | -230 | -200 |
| Total cashflow excl debt drawdown | -64 | -412 | -184 | -351 | -405 | 48 | 214 |
| Net debt | 0 | 380 | 552 | 719 | 775 | 727 | 513 |
| Available financing in place | | 1010 | 1010 | 1010 | 1010 | 1010 | 1010 |
| Production (boepd) | 4673 | 10392 | 12800 | 12400 | 12500 | 18000 | 26000 |
| Ave realised oil price ($/bbl) | 110 | 107 | 104 | 100 | 97 | 88 | 83 |
| Ave cost of operations | 47 | 45 | 42 | 51 | 51 | 44 | 38 |
| Number of shares (in M) | 259.2 | 323.6 | 328.4 | 329.6 | 329.6 | 329.6 | 329.6 |
| Operating Cashflow/shares | 0.35 | 0.75 | | | 0.51 | 0.84 | 1.26 |
| Share price | 2.13 | 2.72 | | | 1.53 | 2.53 | 3.77 |
| Share Price to Cashflow ratio | 6.09 | 3.61 | | | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Debt / EBITDA | | 1.56 | | | 4.61 | 2.61 | 1.24 |