Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

RE:RE:target

[JohnJBond]

Analysts are rated based on stock prices achieving their targets.    There is no advantage to an analyst to forecast a price thats double the share price, when they can make it 25% more than the shareprice.

All that matters with forecast target prices is that they are higher than the current share price.

In terms of the realized average boe price - thats what you get when you look at a company that is half oil and half gas!     It does not mean they got a low price for their oil!    It means they averaged their revenue.

Debt is higher higher right now because they just spent hundreds of millions to buy additional production and reserves.     If all you see is the debt you are missing the point.     At any time they can sell some of their portfolio (read non core parts) - with the obvious result of lowering the debt.    They currently have several hundred million dollars of non core stuff for sale, which means they have their debt level well under control.    It is in error to extrapolate their current debt into the future.

I'm disappointed with the market response to yesterday's results.    If the stock was still at $6, I would expect it to drop following the Q3 results, but at $2.95, I'd expect it to increase.     To get even cheaper is disappointing.

Both Oil and gas have dropped in value in the last few months.    Assuming they stay at those levels means LRE will have less revenue, and less cash to spend on development.    This means they either cut their dividend, or reduce their growth.     There was concern becuase some people feared the dividend would be cut, and others feared growth would be negative.   The company has stated that the actual result will be no change to the dividend, and flat production.    In my view, thats fine performance for a rough spot in commodity prices (particularly given that I do not expect prices to stay low for long).     Lower oil prices in the US will stimulate demand growth, just like high prices caused demand distruction.    Americans love their cars, and love to feul up............it won't take them long to suck up an extra couple of US percent  in response to lower costs (the improvement in US employment etcadds to the process)

15% yield on a safe dividend, is temendous.

This company has a discounted NAV in the $8 range.

It would be very easy for someone to buy the whole thing, and redeploy that dividend money to cover the interest on the money needed to finance the entire purchase.    This thing is a perfect takeover model.