RE:RE:RE:RE:ITG bought 46,000,000 shares of TerangaROCKABERRYFIN wrote: as gold continues to get hammered im sure once barclays finishes dumping millions of shares then others institutions will be there to sell. Tax loss selling is just getting started. I think the low in the gold market will happen after a NO vote in Switzerland. It will drop gold down to $1000. Combine a no vote and tax loss season it will be a terrible time for gold companies. Teranga will probably drop below .30 cents. Sometime in December will be the time to re enter the gold market. imo
good analysis rockaberry, I spent the weekend doing a lot of research, analysis on various miners and looking for opportunities, been thinking about the recent drop in gold (3 years in a row) and especially during the so called seasonal strength between sept - jan. I do however and in the short term 4-6weeks) see a strength in gold and will breakthrough 1200 ahead of the vote and the crowded trade in USD as the two catalyst for 1200. Miners will gain another and on average 10% from these levels.
TG however has lagged but I do expect it to trade up between .48-55c in that time on technicals not on fundamentals. at current cap of 140-150m that's below nav and cash fnv invested to close out oromin, there's a lot of research and analyst that are looking at beat up miners that are trading way below nav even at 1100 gold and will purely buy it/up on technicalities.
as we get near y/e tax loss selling the buying by indexes, mm and possibly buying by TG insiders will offset the selling pressure which a lot will come from retail - mm vs retail have a longer timeline and will typically double down here again just on technicalities rather than fundamentals.
my own analysis/commentary is based on technicals not fundamentals, there's a lot of signals that I'm looking at, the price range I provided is based on oversold and technical bounce that's about to happen in gold.
40-42 is the number that lot of mm are looking at, I've spoken to a couple of private wealth mgr and they're adding to positions at these levels on gold miners and they're seeing the same info/data/technical info that I am.
long term though I agree (in 12-18m), gold will take a beat down to 1000 and not to say that it doesn't spike up as we saw friday from time to time, a lot of mm will bet on the bear side as a way to make money back.
One more comment on TG is a possible acquisition or bid that may come out - the obvious is from randgold... .60-65c around 200m but below 250m TG will be under a lot of pressure and don't be surprise if another proxy fight emerges as the company have missed 3 quarters in a row, and will look at who's acquiring the shares, not just mm or retail... there's a lot of opportunistic people/companies out there that will not take NO for answer this time and vote out mgmt or the board if they missed q4 target of 75k, remember that 12k ounces were delivered to fnv and people are keeping tabs of the actual ounces TG produced vs last yr - that streaming deal really screwed TG shareholders on a low gold price env and if long term target for gold is 900-1000 then TG cannot be on their own....
GLTA