RE:RE:RE:RE:Job # Misses and Gold, Silver and TGZ ExcelPiperdown wrote:
Hey 99999gold. Good analyst on your most recent post. Thanks for that. As for this post. I have a question about SMF. I know it is TGZ board, but anyways. You say you are looking to get in below $2.80, before their q3 results that are due Friday.
My question is are you expecting them to at least meet target or even better beat target or just gambling and using the potetial catalyst on Friday as way to hopefully make some gains.
Thanks,
Piperdown
@piperdown - I'm looking at semafo as well for a potential gain of 10-15% - compare to most miners they are guiding up NOT down including TG. I had a bid at 2.75, This is a trade for me not a buy/hold as this tends to rally when gold rallies - timing is everything. TG though I keep pushing the timeline for a potential 5 bagger (that's becoming quite a dream) but in a low gold price env and sub 1000 gold they're a sitting duck. Still I'll hold out for for potential 50% gain from here if a takeout emerges even if it doesn't I'm expecting the same rally in miners as last yr and as we get closer to q4 results a lot of buying will be done ahead of that.
a lof of noise out there when it comes to gold price and miners but any miner that can still manage produce an ounce with a 25% margin is going to be gold. I see smf being a takeout candidate themselves because they are one of the few that actually that have kind of margin. TG's margin is 15% at best - that streaming deal really has back fired on TG because of the lost revenue/cash flow, however hindsight is 20/20.
The only thing going for TG is the debt free situation and re-rating but even if TG manages to survive on it's own (and I wish they do) to get the same valuation as SMF of 750m - they'll need to have the cash on hand equivalent of 120m which TG will not have for another 5 yrs (my estimate at 1100 gold) and I'm estimating profit of roughly 20-25m a year if they stay in the same production of 250k.
Once the political situation in Burkina gets sorted out, expect another 20% gain for SMF - that is a also a cloud but the market/investors are treating that as a non event in general.
GL piperdown