what a fabulous run and ride this is....
Some of you long timers will remember that I have been in this stock for many years, and used to post fairly regularly before all the garbage sensationalist garbage posting started.
I was actually joking with another large holder yesterday recalling the day many years ago when we were all WAY WAY underwater ... with AC's in the $1.50 range....and a bunch of us were averaging down (again) at 6-8 cents... For the better part of two weeks, you could buy absolutely as much as you wanted to buy if you stayed on the bid... the stock just kept coming in big blocks. The market cap of the company literally imploded on what in dollar terms was relatively little actual value.
(Fortunately I still hold a fair whack of that stock, although arguably it never seems like enough when this kind of very rare hyerbolic rise happens !)
what a difference 10 years makes !
Today i was watching level two fairly closely... and for a good part of the morning there was 250-300 thousand shares on both the bid and ask, with a one cent spread. Thats $500-$600+k on each side of the market, absolutely astounding.... all while the volume turned over like a slot machine that was paying out a jackpot. The price moves and volume transacted has been nothing short of stunning. A truly fabulous ride.
This leads me to believe there are much larger forces at play here, and clearly there are big hands involved. This company is absolutely getting international exposure.
Today felt like a massive short squeeze capitulation, although given the incredibly low amount of short shares outstanding going into today, there is no way that was the case. I am more inclined to believe this is more a combined function of an outright bullish conference call, outlining clearly compelling 4050 results unveiled in the Vanderbuilt Study, along with mgmt jumping up and down about real pending deals and announcements, on top of three analyst updates with raised targets, and finally a relatively small financing being marketed that was likely FAR oversubscribed...I think the results is, there are simply too many International institutions chasing too few shares.
The discourse here reminds me almost exactly of what was being said when the stock hit $1.15 and the company announced the financing at 90 cents.
While i agree that there was some awkward discussion around the need for further capital to fund the pipeline expansion..... I honestly didnt come away at all thinking Pierre said, there wont be another financing round. What I heard him say ( and I havent gone back to listen ) is that they have major sunk costs in the upcoming trials in the form of having funded alot of the product needed for those trials, and between the JV / cost sharing and other means, they could get buy largely on what they have with respect to the pipe development they have planned for the next while.
However, I did not hear him say, there is no financing coming. In fact, one of you reading this can attest to the fact that I sent a text late last week to say... isnt this about when we should expect a financing, and that was solely based on the incredible price action.. and the fact that it was probably a prudent thing to do given the lumpy rev in Q3
I personally am giving Pierre and co the benefit of the doubt on this. I think we are going to get follow-on announcements that will complete the puzzle as to why it made sense to do what is effectively a minor dilution deal at decent prices. The notion of using it to add meaningful production capacity makes total sense... and will eventually be understood for its value in shortening the RAMP of product revenue thru capacity.
And just like the financing that everyone belly-ached about at 90 cents, we are going ALOT higher before we go anywhere else. There is simply far too much unlocked value here, and one by one the bricks have come together to form a darn solid company that will likely prove to be FAR undervalued.
A CEO simply cant say.... yeah... we are thinking of doing a financing.... its the perenial problem around any open discussion on that issue....and candidly I dont think it matters a darn here anyway... and certainly 100% doesnt matter to a multi billion dollar multinational that sees huge unlocked value in a mid size cdn biotech moving onto the world stage