RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:1+1=3ppp wrote: So we know that they need
187 mil to replace lost production per year
At 55 dollar oil they they have rev of 132 mil or 528 mil per year
GanA production interest ect 63 mil or 252 per year
Div 18 72 mil per year
Royalities 15 mil dropped from 19 because of lower prices for oil 60 mil
total expenses 384 mil plus money needed to replace production 187
total needed 571 mil
Short fall 43 mil
So worst case they cut div to 0 they still have 29 mil kicker.
Long way from going broke like some of the posters would us to think
all is well then according to your "math" - so why the sell off? as always retail is always the last to act - as MMs have been exiting positions.
So you figured out the math that no one else have including those MMs that do this for a living with their models at varying oil prices - you're right, they're wrong. backup the truck.
I would agree with you if LRE doesn't have this 700m debt and its all cash flow positive meaning you can withstand prolong low prices and break even at 60, heck even 50 oil. You're simply wrong with your math.
And finally the 29m in the kicker as you say - what's in it for you as a shareholder to be holding their paper? the answer is ZERO - you're better off collecting 1% interest in your savings account at least in the short term (3-6m).
Oh yeah cut the div to zero - sell off at minimum another 10% off the stock as punishment - double edge sword they're facing. They can kick that can down the road but sooner or later....
Just speaking the truth man, I know it sucks but it is what it is.