RANDOM THOUGHTS ON CNE.First of all, from time to time various posters have accused others here of either bashing or pumping in hopes of somehow gaining personally from such behaviour. I would suggest that our small group here has absolutely no effect on the share price no matter how convincing a case we make. The reason I say that is, to use myself as an example, I notice that in the time it takes for one of my older posts to reach say 300 reads, CNE will have traded well over a quarter million trades. I fail to see how we can influence the market. Just saying.
Secondly, I wonder if Gamba realizes that the gas contracts are the only thing that saved him from total devastation this year. I say that because I think that without the gas contracts and the pending cash flow on the horizon this stock would currently have a 1 handle on it.
Like 1234robt. and allinenergy2 I am currently on the sidelines, but looking for a possible entry point. In my case I will definately buy before year end. Right or wrong, here is my case. Allinenergy2 said earlier that the chart shows oversold. He is of course right but I think there might be a time between now and year end when it is even more oversold. I would offer that the falling oil price is totally recognised in the current stock price but the full effect of tax loss selling is not fully in at this point. There are 3 more weeks of trading to go before Christmas. It has the potential to be greatly oversold because during tax loss selling buyers and sellers are operating under totally different motivations. Buyers are generally looking at fundamentals and this governs their decision making. Sellers on the other hand are motivated by a desire to adjust their gains and losses in order to minimize taxes. Their decisions are governed as much by timing as anything. They are forced (by the fact they have left things so late ) to sell during this next three weeks. They are not so much hung up on price as they are with just getting the job done.
A stock like CNE that has lost 70% of it's value will have a lot of bottom feeders watching it. We got a hint of that today when with an hour to go a few upticks seemed to generate interest and a $.25 dip was rather quickly reduced to a $.07 loss at closing. So, we are very near a bottom and maybe this is close enough. A person can go crazy trying to call it exactly. I have some stink bids in and I might raise them tomorrow.
Earlier AB_ORT questioned the wisdom of getting back in. In my case I see a potential for a fairly quick trade say 6 weeks yielding as much as 60%. The low today was $2.51. I now figure anywhere near there is good. Looking at the chart a recovery to the $4.00 range wouldn't be too much of a stretch in my mind. Remember, a lot of those people that sold only for tax reasons will want back in 30 days later. A favourable capex report or any new gas contracts or any favourable drilling results could push it back up rather quickly.
As usual, only my opinion, time will tell, and good luck to all. (My disclaimer)