GREY:DPGYF - Post by User
Comment by
jerrybeon Dec 03, 2014 7:44am
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Post# 23189102
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New 52 Week Low ---$1.44
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New 52 Week Low ---$1.44Thanks for all the background info. Interesting stuff. It seems that things are changing under our nose and that many more industrial/power processes are switching to gas at a rapid clip.
What would really be a boon for Montney producers is if an LNG station is build on the coast of BC. Obviously, this is still highly uncertain and at least three years out. But if Petronas go ahead and get all the approvals to break the ground on one of those then we definitely have a game changer.
I have been adding throughout the fall trying to catch this falling knife. At this point, I have greatly endangered my wealth by being too concentrated on oil and gas stocks at a time of great uncertainty. I got carried away and now that the bargain prices are there, I have no more dry powder. Frustrating to say the least. I wish you all good luck.
The fundamentals of the Montney producers are very solid. Midstream solutions are being built left and right. They all run a tight ship and WHEN prices start to steady, I think they will start their long march back up. At this point, I do not know what to expect in terms of recovery...further drops with oil prices stagnating and even declining further. Possible. Sharp V-recovery with oil climbing back up to the mid-70s. Possible. I think no one four months ago expected oil to drop this much, even the perma bears. Now that we are here, one has to assume that anything can come over the next 12 months. Obviously a protracted low price environment will only lead to massive cutbacks in drilling, which in turn will make oil prices recover. That being said, there are many reasons for oil not to go back to 90s and above for a long time. I think the party is over, and clearly that is reflected in the low valuations we are seeing right now. Sorry for my musings...I think I am not alone in having been carried away. At this point, I am even considering putting stop losses. We have not even come to the ugly part of having firms report several quarters of bad earnings due to lower prices. The probability that it gets worse before it gets better is real. Would love to hear the opinion of board members on whether we are close to capitulation yet or not?
Last piece of news, this morning it was reported that there was a 40% drop in the number of drilling permits across the main plays in the U.S. Lower prices does affect drilling activity massively. The number of drilling rigs are still high but I believe they will drop substantially in the coming couple of months or so if lower prices are sustained.