What's the consensus out there?Spur...you asked what the consensus is...for what it is worth, here is how I think this is going to play out today. I hate to admit this, and it is never fun...but I've been there and done this a few times. Hope everyone has strong stomach...
1. Institutional investors who were including COS in their portfolios for the dividend are going to dump the stock. The other compelling reason for them to do this is it generate a significant tax loss which they can apply to some other gains in their mixed asset portfolios. BAM...huge drop as the big trades swing.
2. Okay, so who is buying at those huge volumes? Of course, other institutional investors who are looking to pick up something they think will give them a big capital gain next year.
3. In the midst of all of this, some small fish are going to panic and sell.
4. There will be margin calls.
5. Shorts will rule for a bit.
6. Then comes the bottom...nobody really knows when that will happen...could be today...could be next week. But when it turns, it will be swift and start to climb back into an area where where the dividend is worth about 5%...that's about 15 dollars.
Of course, that's just my opinion. Perhaps it is just wishful thinking.