Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:When to start a position on LRE?

[JohnJBond]

FYI, the Canadian Natural Gas situation is far tighter than the US, and Canadian Natural gas is getting drawn down very quickly presently.

You might also want to look at the price of natural gas liquids - its held up very well, and LRE produces lots of it.

US natural gas production is a by-product of US shale oil drilling (about 30% of the production is Nat Gas).    As US shale production has increased recently, so has US Nat Gas.     The converse is true, as US shale drill fails to replace oil production, it also fails to replace Nat Gas production.

Last winter US nat gas storage was decimated by one very cold winter.     The reserves were built back (although not replaced), thanks to the extra nat gas produced as a by-product of the US shale production.

This winter is forecast to be colder than average (so draw downs will be greater than average).    The key part however is the reduced shale drilling will significantly reduce nat gas production in 2015.    The net effect is unknown presently, but is looks like the pending cold weather is going to get some help reducing US inventories by concurrent reduced production.