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Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Nevada Copper Corp is a Canada-based mining company. The Company is engaged in the development, operation, and exploration of its copper project (the Project) at its Pumpkin Hollow Property (the Property) in Western Nevada, United States of America. Its two fully permitted projects include the high-grade Underground Mine and processing facility, which is undergoing a restart of operations, and a large-scale open pit PFS stage project. The Property is located in northwestern Nevada and consists of approximately 24,300 acres of contiguous mineral rights including approximately 10,800 acres of owned private land and leased patented claims. Pumpkin Hollow is located approximately 8 miles southeast of the small town of Yerington, Nevada in Lyon County, one- and one-half hours drive southeast of Reno. The Company’s wholly owned subsidiary is Nevada Copper, Inc.


GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by thomsonion Dec 04, 2014 11:12pm
148 Views
Post# 23198048

Some Remarks on Valuation

Some Remarks on ValuationI have seen in the past few weeks, a number of "opinions" of what the future share price or value of NCU might be to some "predator" company. Most have been tossing out numbers that vary considerably with no backup or reasoning provided. Ok...I will join the "opinion" club and offer my two bits worth re: NCU potential stock value for what its worth. I like to use assumptions which may be right or wrong..you decide whether they or reasonable or not--I don't care either way. OK: I like to look at NPV, and I also like to use a discount factor or 8% (to reflect capital costs) as well as a low ball estimate for the price of copper--$2.75/lb. For convenience, I use the estimates from NCU's website for the low ball/conservative case. The stated NPVdisc8% of the underground mine is $164,000,000 and that for the open pit is estimated at $550,000,000 and there are currently 88,100,000 fully diluted shares outstanding (an increase due to options granted) You will note that many of the analysts apply a multiple to NPV depending on the stage of the project. To keep it simple, I like to look at this multiple as a "chance of success" such that the expected value is a product of the COS*NPVdisc8%. The key thing is understanding "multiple expansion" and how it affects analysts estimate of future share price. Clearly, when timing of first cashflow is poorly understood, a project might warrant a multiple of say--.6. However, when permitting for a mining project becomes more certain, and perhaps financing is considered a done deal, a project might warrant increased confidence and a COS multiple of say 0.8NPV. If the project is to the point where it is in production, the multiple could be increased further to approach the NPV (ie a multiple of 1*NPV) where all factors are relatively well known with a fair degree of confidence, including forward copper price. Any NPV calc is based on a copper price deck___meaning the assumed copper price going forward in time. If you believe copper will tank to .80 cents/lb--all bets are off. If however, you take a reasonable guess or look at the future--you have a number (NPV) you can work with. Is it right? Only the future will tell you if you are close, or approximately correct. This clearly adds uncertainty which ends up in your predicted share price.(ie error) I happen to think, and others can disagree to their hearts content, that a long term price of $2.75/lb is reasonable. So assuming a multiple of .6, I get a target share price for the underground of $1.12 and for the open pit of $3.75 for a total value of $4.86/share. (lots of uncertainty). If you feel pretty good about the companies project and have a better handle on timing etc, you might go with a multiple of NPV of .8 which yields an underground value of $1.49 and an open pit value of $4.99 for a total of $6.48/share. If the project is on production, you might raise the multiple to 1, which yields an underground value of $1.86 and an open pit value of $6.24 for a target price of $8.10/share. Now lets consider the possibility of a 30pct rise in the NPV of the openpit due to inclusion of additional drilling results. (a guess on my part). Lets assume the underground does not prove up any more ore for this case. This yields (at a .8 multiple) $7.98/shr. It both mines are on production, you get to $9.98/share with this added (assumed) reserve increase. In summary...the valuation is fluid depending on a lot of factors and assumptions that are employed. And that is why this boards estimates are all over the map. You need to pick one you think is "reasonable", and I might add, its a best guess given the assumptions you have employed. Hope I haven't lost you, although I am sure there are some I have.
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